Saturday, November 03, 2007

Election Forecast

Well here we are only days before the Saskatchewan provincial election. Everyone is trying to guess by how much the SaskParty will win this election. My first instinct on November 1, 2007 was 33 seats for the SaskParty, 25 for the NDP and none for the liberals. I have since looked deeper into my crystal ball and looked at all the factors that contribute to who wins and who loses in a provincial election. Initially, I thought some of those factors would not come into play, but have now decided they will. This will change the final outcome of this election.

What are some of these factors? To begin with, the NDP has annoyed almost everyone in the province on at least one issue or another over the last four years. The voters will remember these on Election Day. The economy is strong and the voters believe it can be even better with a new government. That is only a belief with little to support it and only time will tell if the economy will be kind to the SaskParty. Regardless, the voters feel it will be and that will serve to satisfy their ever-outstretched hands for more.

Pollsters have told us for years that the political lines are blurred resulting from voters being less conscious about the ideological and philosophical factors that influence how they vote. I agree the lines have been blurred, but only as it relates to how the political parties have all become to look the same respecting their policies. I believe with our aging population and the advances in technology among voters whom are under sixty-five years of age that there is a new attitude about how Saskatchewan people see themselves and how they see the future of Saskatchewan. They are more prepared for change now than they have been in the past and the SaskParty represents that change. The NDP represents the status quo and that is just not on at this time in our political history. I believe the voters still have firm ideological and philosophical beliefs that have been on slow burn over recent years. The SaskParty has provided the political environment for these beliefs to once again flourish as it once did among the pioneers of our great province.

Politics is odd at the best of times and so will be the numbers when the polls close and the results of this election are known. The SaskParty should win 37 seats and that will leave the NDP with 21 if voter turnout is up from the last election. The SaskParty margin of victory will depend on an increase in the total number of votes cast. I believe they will attract new voters in this election. This election will signal to all of Canada that things are about to change very significantly here in Saskatchewan. Get out and vote and be part of our province’s great history.