The Weyburn-Big Muddy by-election is over and the SaskParty has retained the constituency. The new MLA is 26-year-old Dustin Duncan who I believe is now the youngest MLA in the Saskatchewan legislature.
The liberal leader bravely put his neck on the line and finished second well back of the SaskParty. The NDP came in third with only 1,735 votes.
What should we make of this by-election? Is it an indication of how the next provincial election may play out?
I believe it is. Voter turnout was good at nearly 70%. The SaskParty has held the seat for seven years.
The SaskParty is now getting a firm foothold on small urban centers to compliment their strength in the rural constituencies. They must now focus on Regina and Saskatoon.
I predict they will win seats currently held by the NDP in the next provincial election. David Karwacki had no hope of winning this by-election, but I don’t believe that is why he ran. He ran to gain recognition for himself and the liberal party. To this extent, he was successful.
Watch for a split of votes between the liberals and the NDP. Don’t be surprised if the liberals become the official opposition with the SaskParty forming government and the NDP falling into third party status.
The NDP has fallen well out of favour with Saskatchewan voters and NDP voters just may vote liberal at the next election. Regardless, I believe enough NDP voters will either vote liberal or SaskParty resulting in a majority government for Brad Wall and the SaskParty.
This is how the SaskParty won big in Weyburn-Big Muddy and it is how they may win big at the next provincial election.