Wednesday, January 11, 2006

Election Predictions

There is plenty of election news nationally, but how are we looking here in Saskatchewan? Lets consider the four constituencies in Regina. The conservatives will win in Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre. Larry Spencer made the break through for the conservatives defeating incumbent John Solomon. Stephan Harper then threw Larry Spencer out of the party for comments he made opposing same-sex marriage. Interestingly, Harper and Lukiwski now share the same views as Spencer and the conservatives have promised to restore the traditional definition of marriage. Good for Harper. Count Lukiwski in!

Dave Batters is running a strong campaign in Palliser and will win his seat by at least a thousand votes. The NDP and liberals are not running strong campaigns in Palliser. A typical socialist and a lawyer are no match for Batters who is running a strong campaign.

The Wascana riding is a bit more interesting. It is a two horse race between the liberals and the conservatives. Goodale has served well and brought plenty of goodies to Saskatchewan, but his days are numbered. He has scandal all around him, which I doubt is even remotely linked to him. Regardless, it is taking a toll on his campaign. The conservative candidate is a good Christian boy with some political knowledge, but not the strongest at debate or as aggressive as it will require to defeat Goodale. If the conservative campaign steps it up a notch and challenges Goodale in his own riding in debate and has Harper in for some added support then there is a chance for the conservatives to pull an upset. Don’t bet on it, but Goodale will have to work hard to retain his seat. You can look to Goodale retiring soon if he lands in opposition and that will open up the seat for a conservative victory in a bye-election.

Now we come to Regina Qu’Appelle and the Andrew Scheer / Lorne Nystrom rematch. With the liberals in free fall it is hard to see how the liberal candidate can get any more votes than she did in the last election. The liberal vote should drop, but where will those votes go? They should go two to the NDP and one to the conservatives, which should make for a close match between Scheer and Nystrom.

Finally, I must note that the Scheer campaign must be in some trouble as some apparent supporter fraudulently used my name on a CBC blog to support his candidacy. CBC removed the content from their blog at my request and the media was advised. I will make it clear at this point that I am not involved in any campaign for any of the political parties. If I had to vote in Regina Qu’Appelle I would not vote for Andrew Scheer because I know him better than most. I have never been a supporter of self-appointed intellects. Scheer is little more than a high school graduate. He worked for Larry Spencer and fell short there as he has in the short time he has been elected. If he loses the election he will return to Ottawa and work for the conservatives. I have been a conservative for over forty years and it is time to change the government, but it is also important to have some strong representation in the opposition with experience.

The conservatives will form a majority government and Scheer may lose and have to settle for working for the government. Either way he won’t be out of a job. He is a good young political hack. Regardless, the voters are always right. They always get what they ask for so be careful whom you vote for on Election Day.